Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME)
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator — Historical Chart
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Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (FRED series SAHMREALTIME) is a monthly economic indicator measured in percentage points. The series is published through FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic database, with history going back to 1959. Values are seasonally adjusted, smoothing out predictable calendar effects so that underlying trends are easier to see.
Why it matters: Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator is one of the indicators traders, economists, and policymakers watch within the economic complex. Analysts use it to track conditions in the US economy and to anticipate shifts in growth, inflation, and policy.
How to read it: focus on the direction and persistence of changes rather than any single monthly print. Comparing the latest value against its level a year ago, and against its long-run range since 1959, gives a better sense of whether the series is signaling acceleration, deceleration, or a turning point.
About This Series
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months. This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.
Recent Data
| Date | Value (Percentage Points) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | 0.10 | -0.03 |
| April 1, 2026 | 0.13 | -0.07 |
| March 1, 2026 | 0.20 | -0.07 |
| February 1, 2026 | 0.27 | -0.03 |
| January 1, 2026 | 0.30 | -0.05 |
| December 1, 2025 | 0.35 | -0.08 |
| November 1, 2025 | 0.43 | +0.2 |
| September 1, 2025 | 0.23 | +0.1 |
| August 1, 2025 | 0.13 | +0.03 |
| July 1, 2025 | 0.10 | -0.07 |
| June 1, 2025 | 0.17 | -0.1 |
| May 1, 2025 | 0.27 | +0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator today?
The latest value of Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) is shown at the top of this page, along with its observation date and the change from the prior reading. Data is sourced from FRED and refreshed regularly.
How often is Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator updated?
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator is reported monthly (Monthly). New observations appear on FRED shortly after the source agency releases them, and this page updates daily.
What does a rising Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator mean?
A sustained rise in Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator signals strengthening readings in this economic measure, in percentage points. Whether that is positive or negative for markets depends on context — compare the move against the series’ trend and related indicators in the same category.
Where does the SAHMREALTIME data come from?
The data comes from FRED® (Federal Reserve Economic Data), maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, under series ID SAHMREALTIME. History is available back to 1959.
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Data sourced from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME). Retrieved from fred.stlouisfed.org. Last updated June 5, 2026.