Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N)
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities — Historical Chart
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Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (FRED series RECPROUSM156N) is a monthly economic indicator measured in percent. The series is published through FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic database, with history going back to 1967.
Why it matters: Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities is one of the indicators traders, economists, and policymakers watch within the economic complex. Analysts use it to track conditions in the US economy and to anticipate shifts in growth, inflation, and policy.
How to read it: focus on the direction and persistence of changes rather than any single monthly print. Comparing the latest value against its level a year ago, and against its long-run range since 1967, gives a better sense of whether the series is signaling acceleration, deceleration, or a turning point.
About This Series
Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see: Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "<a href="http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/research/published-papers/chauvet-and-piger_2008_jour.pdf">A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods (https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f2ed/8fac87c0c82c3d85ca64ee9846658d8810fb.pdf?_ga=2.168797348.404457612.1561570817-1723670870.1561570817)," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49. For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 (http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm).
Recent Data
| Date | Value (%) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| April 1, 2026 | 0.44% | -0.02 |
| March 1, 2026 | 0.46% | +0 |
| February 1, 2026 | 0.46% | +0.26 |
| January 1, 2026 | 0.20% | -0.04 |
| December 1, 2025 | 0.24% | -0.1 |
| November 1, 2025 | 0.34% | -0.48 |
| October 1, 2025 | 0.82% | +0.16 |
| September 1, 2025 | 0.66% | -0.06 |
| August 1, 2025 | 0.72% | +0.38 |
| July 1, 2025 | 0.34% | -0.1 |
| June 1, 2025 | 0.44% | -0.24 |
| May 1, 2025 | 0.68% | +0.22 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities today?
The latest value of Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N) is shown at the top of this page, along with its observation date and the change from the prior reading. Data is sourced from FRED and refreshed regularly.
How often is Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities updated?
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities is reported monthly (Monthly). New observations appear on FRED shortly after the source agency releases them, and this page updates daily.
What does a rising Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities mean?
A sustained rise in Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities signals strengthening readings in this economic measure, in percent. Whether that is positive or negative for markets depends on context — compare the move against the series’ trend and related indicators in the same category.
Where does the RECPROUSM156N data come from?
The data comes from FRED® (Federal Reserve Economic Data), maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, under series ID RECPROUSM156N. History is available back to 1967.
Related Unknown Indicators
- Real Gross Domestic Product1.6
- Real gross domestic product per capita70,502
- Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Total Private32.31
- Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private34.3
- Average Weekly Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Manufacturing41.6
- Average Weekly Overtime Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Manufacturing4
- Business Applications: Total for All NAICS in the United States523,971
- ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread0.75
Data sourced from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N). Retrieved from fred.stlouisfed.org. Last updated June 1, 2026.